近日，上海－加州創新對話在意昂2官网成功舉行。本次對話首次設立圓桌對話預熱場，加州大學聖迭戈分校全球政策和戰略意昂2Susan Shirk教授與意昂2院長、中國經濟研究中心主任張軍教授，以“未來中美關系中的福利與創新”為主題進行了報告和交流。對話由蔣昌建副教授主持，全程英語進行。
基於政策調整的角度張軍教授解讀了中國經濟增長率下降的原因🧜🚣🏻♀️。張軍教授認為，為應對2008年全球金融危機，中國政府批準了一攬子經濟刺激計劃🩰，結果雖然促進了總需求的增長，卻導致了地方政府和企業部門債務的增加🧑🏼🎄。這限製了國家能力的擴充🐶。中國政府一直不願意實施需求側的政策。
為什麽政府應該在供給方面達成共識👨？
張教授認為，從長遠來看，通過從需求側政策轉向供給端政策🧑🏻🦯➡️，中國政府能夠解決基本面的問題👩🏿🦳。張教授認為，結構改革盡管很重要，但是並不容易。供給方面的政策也有它的局限性，比如它的執行時間會很長🍈，而且面臨各部委的政治阻力。哪怕得到了全面實施，在短期內結構改革方案，也達不到中國經濟的名義增長的要求𓀙。固定資產的名義增長率是每年8%，而五年前這一數字是25%。
中國可以利用財政和貨幣政策
中國不應僅關註一種政策，應將兩種政策結合。首先，政府應該改變不要出臺經濟刺激政策的看法。通過引用中國國家統計局公布的數字，張軍教授發現中國不同地區對經濟刺激方案的反應有很大不同。張教授認為這有助於政府知悉各地經濟增長的來源並不相同🕖🌗。東部沿海省份的經濟增長率位於全國平均水平🏋🏿♀️，而東北部省份則增長緩慢。中國中部省份盡管資源豐富，但也出現了GDP的大幅下滑。然而，西南省份出現了更好的增長態勢，蓬勃發展的服務業給當地經濟提供了強大的增長驅動力⛹️♀️，尤其是在運輸、物流、IT、技術和金融方面。
中美關系對兩國未來的發展非常重要
盡管勞動生產率的毛增長率放緩，張軍教授仍樂觀認為從長期來看中國會成為一個有效率和有競爭力的市場👩🏿🦳。張教授認為（中美）雙邊關系非常重要。中國需要消除進入壁壘，允許國際和國內私有企業參與到服務業之中。美國市場對中國很重要，因此美國市場也需要找到讓中國企業更好地參與進來的解決方案♥︎。有了良性且穩定的中美關系，中國方能實現到2020年國民收入翻一番的目標👉🏻。
建立合作的關鍵點
Susan Shirk表示👰🏿♀️，中美關系正處於合作與對抗的轉折點。“兩國是否能繼續合作並求同存異🫵🏿？”Shirk教授向聽眾提出了這個問題🪪。她認為𓀚，兩國如果不能盡快采取一種積極的方式，那麽可能會失去合作機會並走向對抗♥️。
區域問題的分歧會破壞全球穩定
Susan Shirk教授認為⛹🏻♀️，從全球層面上來看的時候🚣🏼，（中美）兩國關系是很不錯的👨🏽🦲。她以氣候變化👨👨👧、伊朗核問題和全球治理等為例，肯定了中國在全球事務中發揮的作用♣️。此外，中國的投資活動一直活躍在世界各地。在區域議題上，中國和美國存在不一致。Shirk教授指出🪴，在南海中美的飛機和船只摩擦不斷並導致軍事沖突的升級🧑🏿⚕️。另外🤫，中美兩國在中國東部海域的領土權和臺灣海峽的海上主權都有爭論🪴。
中美兩國的關系自冷戰以來變化較大
Shirk教授認為🚉，目前中美兩國政府正著力打造、並且比以往任何時候都更加強調（各自的）價值。歷史上，亞洲的勢力範圍被分為兩塊🟪，一塊是美國、日本和法國🦐，另一塊是中國💪🏼、俄羅斯、柬埔寨和老撾。“我們經常說，我們與中國的關系不同於冷戰時期的緊張局勢🫶🏻，”Shirk教授說，“但現在中國領導人在喚起美國顛覆中國的觀點，在美國方面，奧巴馬政府正在推動跨太平洋夥伴關系，問人們更想讓亞洲經濟體按美國還是中國的規則來運作”。Shirk教授將這定義成美國的參與戰略，和中國的安全戰略。
連接和參與的方法
“一些對參與論持懷疑態度的人說，中國現在表現得很友好是因為他們現在實力比較弱”Shirk教授說👦🏼。（該論點成立的）前提是中國處在發展階段，主要選民也是在工商業界🎒，中國作為一個崛起中的大國並沒有侵略性。然而，以前鄧小平就明白👩🏻💻，隨著中國的崛起，把中國當作威脅的觀念也會隨之滋生。這會造成其他國家形成聯盟對抗中國的風險。因此，中國面臨的挑戰是如何保證自己的意圖是良性的🧜🏼🤾♀️。因此，加入20國集團之類的組織對中國的國家安全非常重要，因為它提供了一種與其他國家連接的機會👏🏽。
中國的行為改變走向對抗
Shirk教授表示美國需要有所反映，原因是近期中國的行為出現了三個變化🌒🌝。首先是國家安全優先權的變化。Shirk教授認為👽🧛🏻♀️，“中國想在南海建立主權，是不可能不和周邊國家繼續發生沖突的”🥺。如何處理該地區的局勢在很大程度上表達了中國在該地區的意圖🧑🏻🎤。要和美方合作👷♂️，中國應該考慮優先解釋某些說法🏋🏿，如航行自由等。二是國際公司感覺他們沒辦法在中國參與競爭了🏋🏿♀️。因為感覺被歧視，這些企業希望美國政府能對外國公司采取更強的非關稅壁壘作為回應❓。最後，中國國內的政治態勢對合作造成了阻礙👆🏿。Shirk教授表示，盡管中國公民的社會權利🫸🏿、自由和獲取信息的能力在逐漸增加🧖🏿♂️，但近年來這些增長趨勢在中國出現反轉👼💍，這引起人們對其意圖的關註並為他們與中國的合作設置了障礙🧖♂️。
美國政策需要推動中國走向合作
Shirk教授總結認為，這些變化的存在，使得美國對華政策趨緊🚔，尤其是 其感覺到自身利益受到傷害時，美國會施加更加壓力給中國。“有時要找到不會對美國產生危害的解決方案也很難🥰，”她說，“但是當對中國施加壓力時☝🏻，你得保證中國會有好處並微調他們的反應。”美國政策的目標是通過參與和保證將雙方關系導入積極軌道。國內背景和政治觀點都很重要。這很復雜，因為美國不能依靠軍事手段，所以很難通過切斷或者減緩（他們的經濟）來建立合作。此外🧉✹，政治家和政治勇氣的作用至關重要😤：是否通過冒險和影響中國以使雙方關系得到積極發展，這取決於美國的意願。
在問答部分，Shirk教授認為奧巴馬政府在亞洲發揮了更軸心的作用。Shirk教授認為在2009年亞洲之行中奧巴馬政府感到他們的積極動機並沒有收到很好的回報。譬如說🧑🍼，自克林頓以來每個總統都發表了電視講話，唯獨奧巴馬沒有。
張軍教授對“房地產市場一直用來幫助刺激經濟”的觀點進行了回應，他表示🕘🥲，在中國固定資產投資以刺激經濟的作用並不大。在問到國家是否應該改變他們對TPP的態度時🧏🏼♀️，Shirk教授表示，美國推行貿易協議非常困難⚰️，為了反擊而反擊是沒有意義的，美國需要提供更好的政策來鼓勵與中國的合作✌🏻，但也存在著很大的不確定性。
給張軍教授的最後一個問題是𓀅，他對中國經濟發展有什麽樣的政策建議。張教授表示🏉，他希望看到政府更多嘗試財政政策，因為高杠桿問題使得貨幣政策的作用變得有限✋🏼。中央政府可以通過債券市場而不是通過銀行貸款來融資，這可以為需求方提供更多的流動性，但又不會提高負債率🧑🏽🎤。張教授還認為需要更好地鼓勵當地市場的作用👳🏼♂️。另一個可行的政策需要考慮稅率方面，著力於減輕商業部門的負擔。
On September 12-14, 2016, the Shanghai-California Innovation Dialogue was held at Fudan University in Shanghai, China. Susan Shirk, research professor at UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy, and Zhang Jun, Professor of Economics at FudanUniversity, gave their perspectives on the future of US-China relations, with the theme of welfare and innovation.
Professor Zhang gave his take on why the rate of growth has slowed in China due to a shift in policy. In response to the 2008 global financial crisis, the Chinese government approved of a stimulus package which boosted aggregate demand but increased debt in local governments and the corporate sector. This constrained the ability to expand capacity, and thus the Chinese government has been reluctant to pass demand-side policies.
Why should government make a consensus to go to supply side?
Zhang believes that by shifting from demand side policies to the supply side policies, the Chinese government has been ableto fix the fundamental issues in the long run. “Structure reform is not that easy, even though it is vital, Zhang states. Supply side policies do have its constraints as well, taking longer to implement and met with political resistance by Ministries. In the short run, structure reform programs, even if fully implemented, cannot accommodate the nominal growth of the Chinese economy. The nominal growth of fixed assets are now 8% annually, when five years ago it was at 25%.
China can utilize fiscal and monetary policies
Rather on focusing attention to one type of policy, China can look toward using both. First, the government needs to change the sentiment that another stimulus package should not be repeated. Zhang cites numbers released by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics shows that different parts of the country reacted to the stimulus package differently,which can help the government break down sources of growth. East coast provinces are at the national average, while most north-east provinces have sluggish growth. Middle China provinces, although resource-rich, also suffered from a big drop of GDP. However, the south-west provinces are performing better because of vibrant growth of the service sector. The service sector has been the driver in these areas, specifically in transportation, logistics, IT, tech,and finance.
Relations are important for the future
Despite the gross rate of labor productivity slowing, Zhang is optimistic that in the long run China can become an efficient and competitive market. “Bilateral relations are very important,”state Zhang. China needs to be able to remove barriers of entry to allow private participation of both international and domestic firms in the service sector. Furthermore, the US market is necessary for China, and thus the US market also needs to find solutions to incorporate participation of Chinese firms. With this, China can meet its national goal to double income by 2020.
Critical point for building cooperation
Susan Shirk stated that US-China relations are at a turning point of cooperation versus confrontation. “Are they going to continue cooperation and build a foundation despite differences,” Shirk posed to the audience. She believes that if we are not able to get on a positive path soon, we may lose the opportunity and head toward confrontation.
Differences in regional issues can harm global stability
“When you look at relations on two countries at the global level, they are pretty good,” said Shirk, citing issues such as climate change, Iran nuclear deal, and global governance as points which has encouraged China’s presence in global affairs. Furthermore, China’s investment activities have been active all around the world. But on a regional level, China and the US have not been on same terms. “Planes and ships are rubbing close in the South China Sea and military escalation, and there are other maritime sovereignty claims in East China and the Taiwan Strait,” said Shirk.
US-China Relations have changed since Cold War times
Shirk believes that currently, the governments of the US and China are playing up values and emphasizing them more than ever. Historically, spheres of influence in Asia were divided in two blocks, one being US, Japan, and France, and the other being China, Russia,Cambodia, and Laos. “We used to say that US-China relations was different than the Cold War tensions,” said Shirk, “butnow Chinese leadership is stirring up views of US subverting China, and on the US side, the Obama administration is pushing Transatlantic Pacific Partnership,asking the people if they prefer want Asian economies to operate on US or Chinese rules.” Shirk defines this as an engagement strategy on the US side,and a reassurance strategy on the China side.
Ways toconnect and engage
“Some skeptics of engagement would say that China is acting nice now when they are weak,” said Shirk. Using the premise was China is a work in progress and that key constituency has been the business community as well,there was nothing aggressive about China in character or a rising power.However, at that time, Deng Xiaoping understood that as China grew, it would grow perceptions of being a threat. This creates risk of other countries forminga coalition against China. Therefore, China’s challenge was how to assure their intentions are benign. Therefore, joining organizations such as the G20 was important for national security because it serves as a way to connect with other nations.
China’s changing behaviors heading toward confrontation
Shirk stated three changes in China’s behavior that shows we need to do something. First is shift in national security priorities. “There’s no way for China to establish sovereignty in South China Sea without continuing conflict with its neighbors,” said Shirk. How China handles the situation says a lot of China’s intention in the region. China should consider and prioritize certain claims, such as freedom of navigation, in order to move toward cooperation. Second is international companies feeling that they can no longer compete in China. Feeling discrimination, firms want the US government to get tougher to deal with non-tariff barriers on foreign firms in response. Lastly,domestic political trends in China have but barriers to cooperation. Propaganda campaigns are hostile foreign forces organization, aiming to subvert China. Shirk stated that despite having a gradual increase of growth of civil society and freedom and access to information that recent years China’s taking a u-turn,which raises concerns about intentions and puts barriers to cooperate with Chinese society.
US policy needs to propel China toward cooperation
Shirk concluded that as a result of these changes, there is toughening of US, imposing costs on China when US feels interests are harmed. “Sometimes it’s hard to find solutions that isn’t harmful to the US either,” Shirk stated, “but when you impose costs, you got to reassure China that there will be benefits and finetune their reactions.” The goal of US policy to be get relations on a positive path with engagement and reassurance. Domestic context and political opinion is important on both sides. This is complicated because the US can’t rely on military methods, it’s hard to turn them off or slow them down to build cooperation. Furthermore, statesmanship and political courage is crucial: it’s up to the US’s willingness to take risk and influence China’s process to get on a positive path.
In the Question and Answer portion, Shirkstated that Obama administration to play a more pivot role in Asia. Shirk stated that the Obama administration felt that positive motivation was not reciprocated at the 2009 visit. For example, every president since Clinton hada televised speech, except Obama.
In a response to a comment about the housing market used to help alieve the economy, Zhang stated that at 10% offixed assets, it is not that big in Chinese fixed asset investment to boost the economy
Another question asked about if countries should change their attitude about TPP. Shirk stated that US – Trade agreements are very difficult and pushing back for the sake of pushing back does not make sense. “We need tools to matter enough to China to motivate to cooperate, but there is also tremendous uncertainty,” Shirk stated.
The last question to Zhang asked what policy that he would like to propose. Zhang stated he would like to see exploration of fiscal policies, since monetary policy is limited because of the high leverage problem. The central government can finance through the bond market rather than banking loans to provide more liquidity for the demand side but it doesn’t raise the debt gdp ratio. “It might better to encourage utilization of local markets,” said Zhang. Another mechanism to look at is the tax rateIn order to ease the burden of the business sector.
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