China Economic Review (February 2017) ，張軍與方紅生、鮑雨欣發表合作文章Asymmetric reform bonus: The impact of VAT pilot expansionon China's corporate total tax burden.

Asymmetric reform bonus: The impact of VAT pilot expansionon China's corporate total tax burden

Hongsheng Fang

School of Economics, Zhejiang University

Yuxin Bao

School of Economics, Zhejiang University

Jun Zhang

School of Economics, Fudan University

內容簡介Abstract:

China's VAT pilot program began in Shanghai and was extended to eight provincial-level regions in 2012. We develop a simple model to explore whether and how the VAT pilot expansion affects corporate total tax burden. We find that it will reduce corporate total tax burden of small-scale taxpayers, while for general taxpayers, total tax burden change is uncertain. Using unique company-level half-yearly panel data and general setting for DID analysis for multiple groups and multiple periods, we find that the average treatment effects of the VAT pilot expansion on corporate total tax burden of general taxpayers are insignificant in the pooled sample. Furthermore, the VAT program shows no heterogeneity between the transportation and modern services industries. However, we find that the pilot effect varies by deductible items. In particular, the reduction tax effect is stronger in companies with higher intermediate input rates, and the largest effect is 60.4%. These results are consistent with our conceptual framework.

Keywords🤌🏼：

VAT pilot expansion; Corporate total tax burden; Asymmetric reform bonus

摘要☢️：

中國增值稅改革試點項目從上海開始，並在2012年擴展到8個省級地區。本文開發了一個簡單的模型，用來探討增值稅試點擴展如何影響企業的總體稅負。研究發現，這項改革將減少小規模納稅人的稅負🧑🏻‍🔧，而對於一般納稅人，其稅負的變化是不確定的🦵。本文使用多公司層面的半年期面板數據進行分組別和時期的DID分析，分析發現增值稅試點擴張對一般納稅人的稅負平均處理效果在合並樣本中是微不足道的。此外👩🏿‍🦱👨🏽‍🔬，增值稅改革在運輸和現代服務業之間沒有差異。然而，本文研究發現改革稅負效果隨增值稅扣除項目變化而變化。尤其是中間投入率較高的公司，其減稅效應更大，最大影響為60.4％🚔。這些研究結果與本文的概念框架一致📨。

關鍵詞:

增值稅試點擴張；企業整體稅負；非對稱改革激勵

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